Did Bitcoin Just Bottom? Trader Says The Low Must Form Now
Despite a recent billion-dollar liquidation cascade, veteran crypto analyst Trader Mayne remains steadfast in his core Bitcoin thesis: the current bull cycle's peak is yet to come. He believes the market is poised to form a crucial weekly cycle low, setting the stage for a potential year-end rally.
The Immediate Outlook: Seeking a Definitive Low
Mayne views the recent sell-off not as a fundamental flaw, but as a typical 'feature' of late-cycle price discovery. Anchoring his near-term timing on the popular four-year cycle theory, he anticipates Bitcoin will establish this critical weekly low within a narrow window, extending up to approximately November 10th. For him to confirm the decline's exhaustion, Bitcoin must reclaim the monthly open between $110,000 and $112,000. Conversely, a weekly close below $98,000 would invalidate his immediate bullish outlook, indicating a deeper market correction.
Macro Correlations and Latent Energy
Reinforcing his bullish stance, Mayne highlights a historical cross-asset correlation where gold typically rallies 60 to 90 days before Bitcoin. With gold's recent advance now 80-90 days old, he sees a strong alignment for Bitcoin’s next upward movement. He also notes the absence of a characteristic 'blow-off' top in Bitcoin's recent price action, contrasting it with the vertical surges observed in AI-linked equities and gold. This suggests significant latent upside energy. While acknowledging bearish signals like higher timeframe structure breaks and momentum divergences, Mayne also cautions that a marginal new all-time high swiftly followed by a rejection could prompt a re-evaluation of his current optimistic posture.
Mid-Term Trajectories and Dollar Dynamics
Looking further ahead, Mayne considers two macro trajectories for Bitcoin: a classic four-year cycle peak in late 2025, or an 'atypical extension' pushing a new all-time high into Q1 2026. He expects future Bitcoin drawdowns to be 'truncated' compared to past 80% collapses, owing to increased institutional participation. His strategy involves selling into strength on the next leg up and reassessing if higher-low continuation patterns emerge post-new high. Finally, he flags the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) as a significant risk pivot for 2026, predicting a 'serious low' that could trigger a 'deflationary rally,' which historically exerts pressure on crypto and other risk assets.
