The evolving landscape of Bitcoin's price trajectory is under intense scrutiny, with leading research firms recalibrating their forecasts amidst dynamic market conditions. A recent report from Galaxy Research offers a revised year-end projection, reflecting a nuanced view of BTC's immediate future while reaffirming its long-term potential.
Galaxy Research Recalibrates Bitcoin Forecast
Galaxy Research has significantly adjusted its year-end projection for Bitcoin, downgrading its target by 35% from $185,000 to $120,000. This revision comes as the firm deems previous 2025 targets of $150,000-$200,000 as increasingly "far-fetched." Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research, attributed this recalibration to several factors including ongoing massive whale distribution, challenges faced by BTC treasury companies, and increased competition from alternative market narratives. Despite these short-term headwinds, Galaxy Research maintains a bullish long-term outlook for the cryptocurrency.
Navigating Divergent Market Signals and Expert Optimism
The current market positioning reveals a fascinating interplay of bullish bets and cautious hedging. Options market data for year-end largely aligns with Galaxy's revised $120,000 target, showing top call volumes at this level, followed by $115,000 and $112,000. The Put/Call ratio also indicates a premium for bullish calls. However, a significant portion of the market is simultaneously preparing for potential downside, with considerable protection in place against a dip towards the $80,000 zone. This suggests that while there's hope for a rally to $120,000, investors are also safeguarding against a potential retreat below $100,000. Adding to the mixed sentiment, prominent analysts continue to express long-term optimism. Renowned BTC analyst Willy Woo notes a recovery in Bitcoin's underlying liquidity, potentially setting the stage for upward movement. Furthermore, Galaxy founder Mike Novogratz anticipates that Bitcoin has yet to reach its cycle highs, predicting a rally beyond previous peaks. He views the ongoing sell-off, driven by long-term holder rebalancing, as a healthy, necessary process for the market's mid- to long-term stability, particularly with the expectation of a more dovish Federal Reserve chair influencing monetary policy.
