Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Will It Bounce or Plunge Towards $98,000?
Bitcoin finds itself at a pivotal price juncture, retesting a historically significant level that has frequently determined its short-to-medium-term trajectory. On-chain data is signaling a critical moment for the cryptocurrency, prompting questions about its next major move: a rebound or a descent to lower support levels.
Analyzing the Critical Quantile
According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin is currently hovering around its 0.85 Supply Quantile. This metric, part of Glassnode's "Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model," indicates that approximately 85% of Bitcoin's circulating supply remains in profit. Situated at the $109,000 mark, this level has historically acted as a crucial "make-or-break" point. Past performance suggests that successfully holding above this quantile often precedes significant rallies, while a sustained drop below it can trigger a slide towards the 0.75 band, which currently sits at $98,000. Despite recent brief dips, Bitcoin has consistently managed to climb back above the $109,000 level, underscoring the intense battle between buyers and sellers at this key threshold.
Institutional Selling and Market Dynamics
Adding another layer to Bitcoin's current market dynamics is the recent behavior observed in the Coinbase Premium Gap. This metric, which measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase (USD pair) and Binance (USDT pair), recently turned negative. As highlighted by CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn, this shift suggests a more aggressive selling pressure from American institutional entities, who predominantly use Coinbase, compared to the global whales trading on Binance during Bitcoin's recent drawdown. This institutional selling contributed to the asset's dip below $107,000. However, Bitcoin has since recovered, once again regaining the 0.85 quantile around $109,500. The market now watches closely to see if this recovery is sustainable or merely a temporary reprieve before a potential retest of the $98,000 mark.
