Bitcoin's Bull Run May Stretch to Q2 2026, Analysts Suggest Amidst Shifting Market Dynamics
Despite Bitcoin's recent surge past $110,000, prompting market speculation of a potential peak, new analysis suggests the current bull run could extend well into the second quarter of 2026. This revised outlook challenges Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle, attributing the shift to evolving global macroeconomic conditions and increasing institutional participation.
Shifting Cycles: Beyond the Four-Year Halving Model
Historically, Bitcoin's price movements have largely followed a predictable four-year pattern: a halving event, followed by a 12-18 month rally, a blow-off top, and then a bear market. However, analysts from The Bull Theory indicate a significant deviation, pointing to a transition towards a five-year cycle. This elongation is primarily driven by deeper structural changes in the global economy. Governments are extending debt roll-overs, business cycles are lengthening, and global liquidity is permeating the financial system at a slower pace than before. Anticipated easing signals from the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in Q3 2025, along with robust growth in China's M2 money supply, are expected to provide sustained tailwinds for the crypto market, delaying Bitcoin's price peak.
Institutional Accumulation vs. Retail Euphoria
Further supporting this extended timeline, on-chain data reveals a notable shift in market participation. The current cycle is characterized by institutional accumulation rather than widespread retail hype. Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), corporate treasuries, and large funds are steadily purchasing and holding Bitcoin for prolonged periods. This contrasts sharply with the subdued retail interest, as evidenced by significantly lower Google Trends search volumes for Bitcoin compared to 2021 levels. This indicates a "quiet expansion" phase, suggesting that the euphoric retail-driven market tops, typically seen at the end of traditional bull runs, are yet to materialize. The decreased selling pressure from miners post-Halving further underpins the institutional-led accumulation, pushing the true peak closer to Q2 2026.
