Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, is currently navigating a period of significant market uncertainty as key indicators signal a shift into a corrective phase. Following a sustained rally, the digital asset's momentum has waned, prompting analysts to assess the potential trajectory and duration of this downturn.
Bitcoin's Cycle Score Turns Negative Amid Price Drop
Recent market data reveals a notable loss of upward momentum for Bitcoin, with its price recently declining to $103,528. According to a CryptoQuant QuickTake analysis by contributor Arab Chain, Bitcoin has entered a "critical transition phase" within its market cycle. The Bitcoin Cycle Phase Score (CPS), which integrates market trend and short-term momentum (Z-Score), has explicitly turned negative. This development coincides with a sharp price reduction from $124,000 to approximately $107,000 within a 24-hour period, marking the onset of a structural correction after weeks of consecutive gains. Further confirmation of this bearish shift comes from a trend_signal of -1, indicating that Bitcoin's price is now trading below its 200-day moving average and is likely to remain beneath the $106,780 level until a decisive breakout occurs.
Rebalancing Act: Will Bitcoin Stabilize Above $105,000?
While the immediate outlook points to weakness, Arab Chain suggests that the current movement could be a rebalancing phase within the broader cycle rather than the commencement of a long-term downtrend. This perspective views the pullback as a natural market adjustment following a strong period of price expansion, often preceding a resumption of the main trend. The analyst posits that if Bitcoin's price can stabilize above $105,000 in the coming days, the Cycle Phase Score might re-enter positive territory, signaling the end of the current corrective phase. However, the path forward is not without its challenges. Market fears are growing concerning a potential drop below the psychologically significant $100,000 mark. On-chain data provides little reassurance, as Bitcoin network activity has crashed below its 365-day average. Adding to the cautious sentiment, another crypto analyst, CryptoBirb, has suggested that the current Bitcoin bull cycle is nearing its conclusion, estimating it to be approximately 99.3% complete. Despite these bearish technical and on-chain signals, corporate accumulation of Bitcoin remains robust, with companies adding a substantial 176,000 BTC to their treasuries during Q3 2025. As of now, BTC is trading at $105,484, reflecting a 5.1% decrease over the past 24 hours, underscoring the dynamic and uncertain nature of the market.
