Bitcoin's Bull Run Nears Conclusion: Experts Foresee Cycle Peak
Bitcoin (BTC) has recently experienced a notable downtrend, retracing towards the $111,000 mark and registering a 12% decline from its recent peak of $126,000. This shift has ignited significant concern among market experts, many of whom now suggest that the current bull run may be far closer to its end than many investors currently realize.
Nearing the Cycle's End
Prominent market analyst CryptoBirb, in an assessment on October 14, publicly declared that the bullish cycle is approaching its finale, possibly concluding within the next nine days. He cited the "Cycle Peak Countdown" indicator, which positions Bitcoin at an astonishing 99.3% completion of its current 1,058-day cycle. According to CryptoBirb, this terminal phase is typically marked by a "textbook shakeout of weak hands"—a predictable pattern observed preceding previous market peaks. The market is deep within its peak zone, having already spent 543 days since the last Bitcoin Halving, exceeding the historical peak window of 518 to 580 days.
Institutional Shifts and On-Chain Signals
The market's sentiment has also undergone a dramatic shift, with the Fear & Greed Index plummeting from 71 to 38, signaling a reset from euphoria. This sentiment shift is mirrored by institutional behavior, as evidenced by recent Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) flows reversing from a massive $627 million in inflows to $4.5 million in outflows. Ethereum ETFs also saw substantial outflows of $174.9 million, indicating that "smart money" is proactively securing profits. CryptoBirb interprets this as a classic transition from distribution to accumulation, a pattern frequently seen at market turning points. On-chain metrics further reflect a cooling market, with the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) dropping to 0.522 and the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) declining to 2.15. These profit-taking activities are potentially clearing the way for a final, intense surge. Interestingly, Bitcoin's October performance, down 2.09% month-to-date against a historical average increase of 19.78%, could paradoxically be a bullish indicator. This underperformance might suggest that a significant upward move is still anticipated in the remaining weeks of the month. In essence, while the current cycle is largely complete at 99.3%, with sentiment reset and institutional distribution underway, these factors could coalesce into a "perfect storm" for a final, euphoric push before the market potentially transitions into a new crypto winter.
