Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe has put forth a compelling argument that the traditional four-year Bitcoin market cycle is now obsolete, asserting that the current cycle is fundamentally different from its predecessors. His analysis points to several atypical market behaviors that challenge long-held assumptions about cryptocurrency market trends and their timelines.
Atypical Market Indicators
Van de Poppe identifies three significant deviations from historical market patterns. Firstly, October, traditionally known as "Uptober" for its bullish performance, unexpectedly transformed into "Downtober," marked by a historic sell-off and billions in leveraged bets being liquidated. This contravened the usual market sentiment for the month. Secondly, altcoins have failed to experience the synchronized breakouts observed in previous cycles, indicating a shift in their market dynamics. Most notably, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high before its halving event, a stark reversal of prior cycles where new peaks typically followed the halving, not preceded it.
Rethinking the Cycle Length
Based on these unprecedented shifts, Van de Poppe unequivocally declares the end of the four-year cycle thesis, stating, "The 4-year cycle doesn't exist anymore and I think we should erase the entire thesis of the 4-year cycle." He suggests that the current cycle is poised to be considerably longer, drawing parallels to Q3 2019 and projecting an additional 1.5 to 2 years of market progression. Despite recent volatility, he expresses no concern about an immediate bear market, emphasizing that a sustained 20% drop from Bitcoin's all-time high is necessary for such a declaration. This perspective urges a re-evaluation of how investors approach and anticipate future market movements.
