Recent data reveals a cautionary outlook for Bitcoin's short-term price trajectory, with several key indicators pointing towards potential downward pressure and a period of market cooling. Despite brief attempts at recovery, a fragile equilibrium persists as buyers struggle to regain strong momentum against persistent selling pressure.
Mounting Correction Signals
Analysis of Bitcoin's market activity highlights concerning parallels with previous correction phases. Notably, the 30-day average retail inflows for Bitcoin recently reached $18 billion, a threshold previously observed just before significant short-term pullbacks in August and September. This recurring pattern suggests the market could be heading for another "cooling phase" in the near future. Further exacerbating these concerns, a substantial $648 million in USDC outflows from Coinbase Advanced on October 11 indicates a potential decrease in buying power across exchanges, a trend that, if sustained, could significantly amplify short-term downside pressure.
Weak Buyer Momentum and Fragile Equilibrium
Adding to the bearish sentiment, Bitcoin's taker imbalance has remained negative following aggressive selling, with sell orders continuing to outweigh buys on major platforms like Binance. While fleeting positive readings on October 12 offered a hint of tentative buyer interest, the overall momentum remains notably weak. Prior attempts at market rebounds, particularly those below $118K, have consistently lacked the strong follow-through needed to signal conviction among bulls. The current market equilibrium is precariously balanced, heavily dependent on whether buyers can decisively rebuild confidence and volume before sellers once again assert control, potentially pushing Bitcoin prices lower in the short term.
