Dogecoin Eyes $4 Mark, Driven by Math and Market Structure, Analyst Contends A prominent crypto analyst, known on X as Cantonese Cat (@cantonmeow), predicts a significant surge for Dogecoin (DOGE), projecting a price target of approximately $4 per coin during the current bull run. His comprehensive analysis, based on logarithmic charting, Elliott Wave theory, and Fibonacci extensions, posits that DOGE is still in an extended advance that has yet to reach its peak.
The Elliott Wave Road Map to $4
Cantonese Cat's core thesis centers on a multi-cycle framework, identifying three distinct rounding-bottom cycles on Dogecoin's long-term logarithmic chart, with the third cycle currently underway. He characterizes the present market structure as a series of "cup-and-handle" formations within this broader rounding base. Critically, his Elliott Wave roadmap interprets the 2021 mania as Wave Three, followed by a prolonged corrective Wave Four, and the current upward trend as the commencement of Wave Five. This Wave Five, he argues, is expected to be relatively shorter due to the extended nature of Wave Three. Utilizing Fibonacci retracements and extensions from the Wave Four base, the analyst outlines a target corridor between the 1.272 and 1.618 extensions. The 1.618 extension, aligning around the $4.13 mark, is presented as the most probable outcome. He emphasizes that a break above $0.33 would serve as a crucial near-term trigger, signaling a move towards these higher targets.
Beyond Market Cap: The True Drivers
Addressing potential skepticism regarding the market capitalization required for such a price, Cantonese Cat stresses that traditional arithmetic interpretations of market cap can be misleading in multi-order-of-magnitude cycles. He asserts that the true drivers are liquidity dynamics, credit conditions, leverage, and the overall market structure, rather than simplistic capital inflow assumptions. "If you have a liquidity condition, if they keep printing money, if the market cycle supports this, you don't need half a trillion dollars to push Doge to half a trillion dollars market cap," he explains. He acknowledges the May 2021 peak involved "irrational exuberance" but maintains that similar market dynamics, driven by liquidity, could recur. While Dogecoin's ongoing issuance is a factor, he considers it secondary to prevailing sentiment and the overarching liquidity-driven supercycle. He cautions that invalidations could occur if DOGE fails to reclaim and hold key Fibonacci bands or if macro liquidity conditions tighten significantly. Despite these caveats, his analysis firmly indicates that the "major impulse of wave five hasn't really quite happened just yet," reinforcing an empirical, mathematically-driven outlook for Dogecoin's bullish trajectory.
