Bitcoin Retreats as $115,000 Resistance Proves Stubborn
Bitcoin has shown signs of weakening momentum as September concludes, failing to sustain a push beyond the crucial $115,000 mark. The cryptocurrency has been trading within a tight range, indicating a cautious sentiment among traders following a failed breakout attempt.
Market Pressure Mounts as Key Resistance Holds
Over the past week, Bitcoin's price oscillated between a local high near $115,550 and a low around $108,400. Recent trading sessions have seen it consolidate even further within a narrower band of $108,750 to $109,740. This pattern suggests that sellers have actively stepped in at lower highs, preventing any significant upward trajectory. According to analyst Axel Adler, these "descending highs" are a warning sign, indicating that buyers are losing early ground in their efforts to drive the price higher. Immediate resistance is identified between $111,000 and $112,000, influenced by on-chain flows and exchange behavior. To regain bullish momentum, Bitcoin would need a decisive move above the $114,000-$115,400 range. Conversely, a failure to defend the $108,750 level could see prices accelerate downwards towards $106,000-$105,000.
Cautious Momentum Signals a Standoff
The shift in market sentiment is further underscored by a cooling momentum index. CryptoQuant's 30-day momentum index closed the week near -2%, a notable drop from its +1% start. Over this period, momentum readings largely stayed negative, ranging from -6% to +1%, with only two out of seven sessions closing above zero. This decline in momentum aligns with the loss of the $114,000-$115,000 support level, confirming a decrease in buying pressure. Traders typically seek sustained positive momentum to confirm a rally. For Bitcoin to signal a clear recovery, it would require a return above $112,000 and several consecutive days of positive momentum. The current market structure reflects consolidation after a failed breakout, characterized by buyers' inability to maintain prices above $115,000. While a strong immediate advance is unlikely without fresh demand, there are no imminent signs of a full-scale sell-off, with liquidity remaining strong near established support levels. On-chain demand and exchange flow data will be crucial in providing clearer signals for Bitcoin's next major move.
