Bitcoin has recently experienced a notable dip, erasing its September gains and prompting concerns about its short-term trajectory. However, amidst these fluctuations, analysts are closely watching key support levels and institutional movements, suggesting that the cryptocurrency might still be gearing up for a significant rally in the final quarter of the year.
Navigating the Current Market Landscape
After slipping to $108K and falling about 12% from its peak of $124.4K, Bitcoin's recent performance has sparked renewed "top" calls. Despite this downturn, Swissblock analysts maintain that BTC's underlying bullish structure remains intact. Their assessment suggests that a "final leg up" could still materialize in Q4, particularly if Bitcoin successfully defends the crucial $107K support level. Furthermore, Swissblock's proprietary model, which previously flagged "high risk" periods, is currently indicating a "low risk regime," hinting at potential upside before the next local peak.
Institutional Demand and Critical Price Levels
A primary catalyst for any potential Q4 rally is expected to be improved institutional demand, especially through Bitcoin ETFs, which could shift price momentum positively. However, the current landscape presents a challenge: long-term holders (LTHs) are showing sell pressure indicative of late-cycle trends. Worryingly, demand for ETF products has recently declined, witnessing significant daily and weekly outflows, which could keep Bitcoin under pressure through Q3. Historically, Q4 has been a powerhouse for BTC, with average returns of 85%, offering a glimmer of hope despite current headwinds. For Bitcoin to secure a rebound, defending the critical $107.5K-$109.7K support zone is paramount. A breach of this area could accelerate a dip towards $105K or even $100K. Conversely, a successful defense, coupled with the On Balance Volume (OBV) holding its H2 support, could pave the way for a rebound. A daily close above $112K would further bolster this bullish scenario, setting immediate targets at $114K and $118K as Bitcoin attempts to chart its course through the end of the year.
