Bitcoin's Bull Run: Is the End Nigh or a Catalyst for a Q4 Surge?
Bitcoin (BTC) currently finds itself at a critical juncture in its market cycle, prompting analysts to intensely scrutinize various indicators to determine whether the long-standing bull run is approaching its climax. With historical patterns suggesting a dramatic final phase, the coming weeks are crucial for understanding Bitcoin's trajectory.
Approaching the Cycle's Climax
Market analyst "CRYPTOBIRD" has issued a stark warning: the Bitcoin bull run could conclude within the next 30 days. This prediction stems from the current cycle reaching 1,038 days since its November 2022 bottom, aligning with approximately 97.5% of a typical cycle duration. Historically, the final 2.5% of Bitcoin's bull runs are characterized by explosive price surges, often catching both retail and institutional investors unprepared. While Bitcoin has been trading in a tight 5% range between $110,500 and $116,000, signaling heavy compression, recent movements saw it briefly break down, now holding just above $109,600. Key technical levels to watch include the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $53,111 as long-term macro support, and the 50-week SMA near $99,000 as the bull market floor.
Halving Impact and Volatility Squeeze
Adding to the urgency, Bitcoin is currently 523 days post-halving, placing it squarely within the historical "peak window" of 518-580 days after each halving event, where every previous cycle top has occurred. Furthermore, market volatility is experiencing a significant squeeze. The Average True Range (ATR) has dropped to 2,250, its lowest reading for 2025, while 50-day volatility stands at 2,800. Historically, such compressed volatility periods rarely last long, typically preceding a violent breakout in price direction within two to four weeks. Despite a rising "Fear and Greed" index at 44, indicating growing apprehension rather than euphoria, and a neutral Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46, momentum appears to have cooled rather than collapsed. An unexpected 4.4% month-to-date gain in September—traditionally Bitcoin's weakest month—coupled with the historically bullish month of October, could set the stage for a strong Q4.
