Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Analyst Kevin Warns Critical Support Must Hold for Next Bull Leg
As Bitcoin experiences a notable pullback, crypto analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) highlights that the market is navigating a familiar seasonal and structural pattern. In a recent broadcast, he stressed the critical importance of a specific price range for Bitcoin's future trajectory, asserting that the market's next significant impulse hinges on maintaining key support levels.
The Bearish Undercurrent and Key Support Zones
Kevin's analysis underscores a prevailing cautious sentiment that has lingered since early August, marked by weekly bearish divergences observed across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader altcoin market (Total2). These divergences occurred as major cryptocurrencies approached multi-year resistance zones, suggesting that the recent dip to around $108,651 for BTC should not catch seasoned traders by surprise. He points out that while symmetrical triangle patterns often appear as continuation signals, they rarely break to the upside in crypto after an initial move higher. The analyst firmly asserts that Bitcoin must "hold $107k to $98k" to form the foundation for the bull cycle's next upward movement, emphasizing the simplicity and non-negotiability of this range. The case for caution is further bolstered by indicators like Total2 registering a "triple top on the weekly" around $1.71-$1.74 trillion, a significant resistance level, accompanied by rolling over weekly RSI and MACD. Kevin also highlights the strategic importance of USDT dominance as a reliable inter-market compass. Its macro descending triangle pattern, featuring a flat-bottom support between 3.9% and 3.7%, has historically coincided with crypto cycle lows and highs. Any approach to this flat bottom has typically created an inverse head-and-shoulders-style base for USDT dominance while Bitcoin reached local peaks, and rejections at the downtrend have consistently aligned with crypto market inflections.
Navigating Q4 Seasonality and Future Triggers
Looking ahead to Q4, Kevin dismisses the presence of a "cycle-ending macro trigger" similar to past events like the 2021 inflation spike or the FTX collapse. Instead, he observes contained, albeit "choppy," inflation gauges and an anticipated easing by the Federal Reserve towards year-end, alongside softening labor data. This macro backdrop, coupled with historical seasonality favoring Q4 for crypto, paints a potentially optimistic picture. Mid-October is marked as a decisive period, with core PCE, CPI, and labor data expected to influence risk appetite. If Bitcoin maintains its critical support between $107K and $98K amidst favorable macroeconomic news and potential rate cuts, the probabilities lean towards a significant upside move. Kevin predicts a "massive move coming for Bitcoin soon," noting record-low weekly Bollinger Band Width readings in Q3, which in prior cycles preceded sharp declines (18-29%) before surging to new highs. However, he cautions that if benign macro conditions fail to prevent Bitcoin's deterioration, traders should be prepared to re-evaluate their cycle thesis. For now, his advice remains steadfast: prioritize patience, disciplined risk management, and profit-taking at resistance levels, letting the higher-time-frame technicals dictate the market's narrative.
