Bitcoin's Dire Warning: Analyst Predicts 50% Crash to $61,000 as Bear Market Looms
After reaching an impressive all-time high of $124,000 in July, Bitcoin has entered a phase of consolidation and struggle, prompting varied reactions from the crypto community. While many anticipate a swift recovery and continued ascent, crypto analyst EXCAVO offers a starkly bearish counter-narrative, asserting that the current trend signals the conclusive end of the bull market and the onset of a significant bear market.
The Three Harbingers of a Market Top
EXCAVO's analysis identifies three classic indicators pointing to a market peak. The first is "Universal Optimism," characterized by widespread bullish sentiment among investors and a seemingly continuous stream of positive developments, such as governments embracing cryptocurrency and establishing reserve funds. According to EXCAVO, this collective euphoria is often a precursor to a market downturn. The second sign is sustained corporate buying, with major public companies like Strategy accumulating massive Bitcoin and Ethereum reserves, often valued in the tens of billions of dollars. This aggressive accumulation, typically seen during bull markets, is now interpreted as a sign of exhaustion. Finally, the analyst highlights the media's overwhelming focus on positive crypto news and investors' reluctance to sell while expecting much higher price targets (e.g., $200,000 to $500,000), suggesting a peak in market sentiment.
A Calculated Exit and Long-Term Outlook
Based on this bearish assessment, EXCAVO has reportedly liquidated their crypto holdings, planning to re-enter the market no sooner than September 2026. Their chart-based projections indicate a potential Bitcoin price drop below $61,000 during this period. The analyst further supports their stance using a "cycle theory," which posits approximately 151 weeks of growth followed by 51 weeks of decline. With the growth phase concluded, the period between September 13 and October 6 marks the "reversal zone" initiating the bear market. Additionally, EXCAVO dismisses the possibility of a broad altcoin season, arguing that with over a million cryptocurrencies in existence, a simultaneous pump across all coins, as seen in 2017, is unlikely. Instead, they foresee selective pumps in altcoins garnering specific investor interest. Despite this short-term pessimism, EXCAVO remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term potential, predicting it will reach $300,000, but only after enduring a "healthy 50-60% correction from the peak" over the next 2.5 years.
