TRON, a prominent blockchain network, currently presents an intriguing dichotomy: a surge in its underlying network activity paired with a noticeable decline in its native cryptocurrency, TRX. This situation begs a deeper look into the factors driving its growth while simultaneously impacting investor sentiment and user longevity.
Unprecedented Network Activity Signals Robust Growth
Despite recent price weakness, TRON's network has demonstrated remarkable organic growth and adoption. Daily transactions have consistently ranged between 9 and 10 million throughout September, marking a substantial 20% increase since January and establishing a new baseline for network usage. Furthermore, stablecoin transfers, particularly USDT, have formed a robust baseline of $25 billion in transaction volume. This surge in activity is complemented by a growing user base, with active accounts hitting 15.1 million and total accounts surpassing 300 million, all pointing towards a highly engaged and expanding ecosystem.
TRX Faces Bearish Headwinds Amidst Retention Challenges
In stark contrast to its flourishing network, TRX has experienced a short-term bearish trend, dropping from $0.35 to $0.336 recently. This market pressure is primarily driven by significant seller dominance, as evidenced by a negative Spot Taker CVD of -35 million Delta in just 24 hours, indicating a higher volume of sell orders compared to buy orders. If this selling pressure persists, TRX could see further declines, potentially towards the $0.32 mark. Adding to the complexity is a critical user retention problem: despite the influx of new users, a significant portion are not staying on the network. Monthly Cohort Retention Rates have plummeted from 19% to a mere 2%, illustrating that while new users are attracted, retaining them long-term remains a major hurdle for the TRON ecosystem.
