Arthur Hayes, the influential chief investment officer of Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, recently divested his entire holding of 96,600 Hyperliquid (HYPE) tokens, valued at approximately $5.1 million. This significant sale, coming less than three weeks after his publicly bullish stance on the asset, initially stirred speculation about a luxury purchase. However, Maelstrom swiftly clarified that the decision was a calculated risk management strategy, driven by pressing concerns over Hyperliquid's tokenomics and burgeoning competition.
The Looming Supply Avalanche
Maelstrom’s primary concern revolves around Hyperliquid's impending token unlock schedule, which they describe as a "Damocles Sword" hanging over HYPE's price performance. Starting November 29, a staggering 237.8 million tokens are set to begin vesting linearly over 24 months. At an average price of $50, this represents a potential $11.9 billion in new supply, translating to roughly $500 million worth of tokens released monthly. Maelstrom's analysis indicates that Hyperliquid's current buyback mechanism can only absorb about 17% of this issuance, leaving an estimated $410 million in tokens vulnerable to open-market sales each month. Furthermore, the fund speculated that Hyperliquid developers, facing a life-changing sum, would likely sell portions of their allocations once vesting commences, adding to the selling pressure.
Battle for DEX Dominance
Beyond the structural token challenges, Maelstrom highlighted the escalating competitive landscape within the perpetual decentralized exchange (DEX) arena. New entrants like Lighter and the Binance-backed Aster are rapidly gaining traction, posing a significant threat to Hyperliquid’s market position. Aster, in particular, has emerged as a formidable rival, boasting support from Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, unique features such as hidden orders and multichain support, and has even momentarily surpassed Hyperliquid in 24-hour DEX volume. This intensified competition underscores Maelstrom's view that in the crypto space, "business is war," and incumbents must adapt quickly or risk being overtaken by more agile challengers.
