Whales Accumulate Bitcoin as Market Braces for Inflation Data
Bitcoin’s largest holders are aggressively increasing their positions, signaling a strong return of "whale" conviction despite a period of significant outflows from US-based spot ETFs. As the market prepares for a pivotal US inflation report, a clear divergence has emerged: while smaller investors and institutional funds have shown recent hesitation, major private holders are accumulating at the fastest monthly pace since early 2024.
The Return of Whale Dominance and Liquidity Demand
According to recent analytics from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin whales have increased their combined holdings to over 3 million BTC, marking a decisive shift from distribution back to accumulation. This resurgence is reflected in the market's Bull Score Index, which reached a high of 90 in late September, a level consistent with an emerging bull market. Beyond simple spot purchases, large-scale participants are also demonstrating increased confidence by leveraging their existing assets. Data reveals that borrowers with Bitcoin-backed loans exceeding $10 million increased their USDT borrowing by over 83%, allowing them to access liquidity without selling their coins. This trend stands in stark contrast to smaller investors, who have significantly reduced their borrowing and overall exposure during the same period.
ETF Outflows and the Looming CPI Test
Despite the bullish behavior of large private holders, the institutional sector has recently struggled with volatility. US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net withdrawals of approximately $744 million across six trading sessions, temporarily erasing gains made during the September breakout. This institutional retreat coincides with heightened anxiety over the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is expected to show an acceleration in inflation. A higher-than-expected reading could trigger further restrictive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, potentially testing the support levels identified by analysts near $81,000. Conversely, if inflation remains manageable, the current whale accumulation could provide the necessary foundation for Bitcoin to challenge resistance levels between $85,000 and $88,000.
