Summary: Bitcoin LTHs Start Distributing: CDD Ratio Hits Historic Levels

Bitcoin finds itself at a pivotal moment, having consolidated stubbornly between $115,000 and $120,000 for over a week. This prolonged price compression is sparking warnings from analysts, who suggest a correction might be imminent given the bulls' inability to breach the $120,000 resistance. The market stands on the cusp of significant volatility, with both technical and on-chain indicators signaling decisive movements ahead. A critical long-term metric, the Monthly Cumulative Days Destroyed (CDD) to Yearly CDD ratio, has surged to an "anomalously high" 0.25. This historical level, previously seen during intense market distributions like the 2014 macro peak and the 2019 corrective phase, points to long-term holders (LTHs) actively moving their long-dormant coins and potentially taking profits. This doesn't necessarily signal the end of the rally but underscores Bitcoin's current consolidation as a key inflection point. Technically, Bitcoin is holding near its 50-period moving average (around $118,500), which has served as dynamic support. While the broader trend remains bullish, indicated by the 100- and 200-period moving averages staying well below current prices, the declining trading volume during this consolidation hints at buyer indecision. A breakout above $122,000 could propel Bitcoin to new highs, yet a fall below $115,700 risks a deeper retracement towards $109,800. Crucially, robust treasury demand and steady Bitcoin ETF inflows continue to provide structural support, mitigating excessive downside pressure and bolstering overall bullish sentiment amidst this period of distribution.