CLARITY Act Stalls: Odds of Landmark Crypto Bill Passing Drop to 60%

The legislative momentum for the CLARITY Act, a pivotal bill aimed at defining the U.S. crypto market structure, is showing signs of fatigue. While supporters previously held high hopes for a breakthrough this year, new assessments suggest that a crowded Senate calendar and competing legislative priorities are creating a significant bottleneck for digital asset regulation.

A Crowded Calendar Diminishes Passage Odds

Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, recently revised his probability estimate for the bill’s passage in 2026, lowering it from a confident 75% to a more cautious 60%. This shift is not attributed to a sudden collapse in political support, but rather to the dwindling time available on the Senate floor. Major legislative distractions, including the fallout from FISA reauthorization votes and other high-priority mandates, have effectively pushed crypto legislation further down the agenda, making the previously targeted July 4th milestone look increasingly unlikely.

Unresolved Hurdles in the SEC-CFTC Dispute

At its core, the CLARITY Act seeks to resolve the long-standing jurisdictional tug-of-war between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) by clarifying asset classifications. However, two major sticking points remain: unresolved lawmaker ethics rules and illicit finance provisions. Despite the optimism from advocates like Senator Cynthia Lummis, the lack of movement on these specific issues suggests that the path to regulatory certainty may be longer and more fluid than the industry had hoped.