Bitcoin’s 4-Year Rhythm: Why the Cycle is Still on Track

Despite a recent countertrend rally that pushed Bitcoin toward the $82,800 mark, Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, suggests that the asset is following a familiar historical script. Cowen argues that the recent price action isn't a sign of a new bull phase, but rather a recurring pattern that confirms Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle remains very much alive.

Historical Echoes and Technical Rejections

A primary indicator for this bearish outlook is Bitcoin's recent rejection at the 200-day simple moving average. According to Cowen, this specific technical behavior mirrored market movements seen in 2018 and 2022, both of which preceded a final, sharp leg down. While some investors viewed the 16-week bounce as a sign of a market floor, Cowen notes that past countertrend rallies have lasted even longer without preventing an eventual correction.

Timing the Peak and the Predicted Bottom

The framework for this analysis rests on the timing of Bitcoin’s peaks and troughs. Cowen points out that Bitcoin’s climb to $126,200 in October 2025 landed precisely within the expected cycle window when measured from previous lows. If this timing holds true for the downside, the market may not see a definitive bottom until the closing months of 2026, consistent with the midterm year lows observed in December 2018 and November 2022.

A Divided Outlook for 2026

While Cowen warns of a potential decline below the $60,000 support level, the broader analyst community remains split. Some market observers predict a climb past $90,000 as early as June, citing different support retests. However, Cowen maintains that the halving-driven rhythm continues to dictate Bitcoin's price structure, suggesting that the path to the next true bull market may require a final period of significant capitulation.