Bitcoin’s Next Big Move? Why the Bull Run May Be Further Off Than You Think

Despite recent price recoveries, on-chain data suggests the true Bitcoin bull market has yet to officially begin, according to industry experts.

The Bull Score Index Remains Neutral

Ki Young Ju, the founder of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, recently shared insights regarding the "Bull Score Index." This sophisticated metric aggregates ten different indicators—including the MVRV Z-Score, Trader Realized Price, and stablecoin liquidity—to determine the health of the Bitcoin network. Currently, the index is hovering in a neutral zone, failing to cross the critical threshold that would signal a definitive bull market.

Signals and Market Shifts

For a bull run to be confirmed, the indicator must exceed a value of 60, meaning at least six of the ten metrics are flashing bullish signals. While Bitcoin spent significant time in a "bearish" red zone during late 2025 and early 2026, the recent price surge has only managed to push the needle into "neutral" territory (between 40 and 60). Ju warned that "once the real Bitcoin bull run begins, all signals will be very clear," concluding that the market is simply "not there yet."

Long-Term Holders Show Resilience

While the Bull Score remains cautious, other data suggests a foundational shift. Analyst James Van Straten noted that supply held by "Long-Term Holders" (investors holding for over 155 days) has recently broken out of a long-term downtrend. This accumulation by the market's "diamond hands" could signal the end of a multi-year consolidation phase, even as Bitcoin's price experiences short-term volatility, currently floating around the $77,300 mark.