Bitcoin's Peak: Expert Debunks November Expectations, Points to Longer Bull Cycle The ongoing debate about Bitcoin's cycle top has intensified, with many market participants anticipating a peak later this year. However, respected crypto market commentator Quinten Francois offers a starkly contrarian view, dismissing predictions of a Q4 2025 blow-off top as fundamentally flawed.
Historical Cycles Point to Delayed Peak
Drawing on extensive historical data and market psychology, Francois asserts that the current Bitcoin bull market is far from its conclusion. He highlights that in previous bull runs (2017 and 2021), the "altseason"—a period where altcoins significantly outperform Bitcoin—typically commenced in the first quarter of the year. Following this, the broader retail-driven psychological cycle consistently took an additional 9 to 12 months to fully materialize. According to Francois, the current altseason has barely begun, a sentiment underscored by the ETH/BTC ratio, which is only now showing signs of reversal. This historical precedent makes an imminent November peak highly improbable.
Altcoin Momentum and Bitcoin's Bullish Setup
The only plausible scenario for an earlier peak, as admitted by Francois, would be a complete absence of an altcoin cycle or a "catastrophic black swan event." Yet, he considers such a rapid conclusion to the retail cycle highly unlikely, emphasizing that the market's psychological dynamics demand a longer unfolding period. While Francois refrains from setting a specific price target for Bitcoin's cycle peak, other analysts have floated figures between $140,000 and $200,000. He currently views Bitcoin as undergoing its most significant bullish setup in history, reinforced by its recent breakthrough above an ascending trendline of all-time highs in July. As of the report, Bitcoin is trading around $114,460, showing a minor decline over the past week, but its long-term trajectory remains robust from his perspective.
