Bitcoin Bull Run Nears Its Climax: Cycle Peak Indicates 95% Completion Bitcoin (BTC) has recently surged past the $112,000 mark, achieving a new weekly high that signals the cryptocurrency's current bull cycle is nearing its definitive end. According to market analyst CryptoBirb, Bitcoin is now approximately 95% through its current cycle, which commenced 1,017 days ago from its November 2022 lows, suggesting an imminent peak within the next 50 days.
Approaching the Peak: A 50-Day Countdown
Historically, Bitcoin's bull markets have typically peaked between 1,060 and 1,100 days following significant lows. This pattern suggests the current cycle's peak could fall between late October and mid-November 2025. This timeline aligns with the post-Halving performance, as price peaks usually occur 518 to 580 days after a Halving event. With the last Halving in April 2024, and 503 days already passed, Bitcoin is firmly in what analysts term the "hot zone"—a period of heightened volatility and potential price movements as it approaches 77% to 86% completion of this historical timeline.
Navigating Volatility and Critical Thresholds
While the immediate future points to a potential final surge, investors are cautioned about the typical aftermath of a cycle peak. Bitcoin has historically experienced significant declines of 70% to 80% over 370 to 410 days following its peaks, projecting a potential bearish phase throughout the first and second quarters of 2026. Seasonally, September tends to be a weaker month for Bitcoin, averaging a 6.17% decline, though this could set the stage for stronger performance in October and November. Analysts highlight September 17 and October 22 as pivotal dates to watch. On the technical front, key support levels are identified at the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $95,900 and the 200-week SMA at $52,300, with immediate local support between $107,700 and $108,000, and resistance between $113,000 and $114,100. As of this writing, Bitcoin trades around $112,886, nearly 11% below its all-time highs.
