Bitcoin's Shaky Recovery: A Bear Market Rally Beneath the Surface
Despite Bitcoin's recent price surge, a CryptoQuant analyst, Maartunn, suggests that the current recovery mirrors a "bear market rally." On-chain metrics reveal a nuanced picture, highlighting both underlying strength from long-term holders and persistent selling pressure from other market participants.
Long-Term Holders Signal Underlying Strength
Maartunn's analysis points to a significant shift in the behavior of Long-Term Holders (LTHs) – investors holding Bitcoin for over 155 days. Initially, between mid-2025 and January 2026, LTH supply showed a negative change, indicating a period of distribution where these seasoned investors were offloading their coins. However, this trend has since reversed, with LTH supply now expanding, signaling a renewed accumulation phase. This shift, while having a 155-day delay in its reflection on current data, suggests a quiet building of structural strength within the market as substantial amounts of Bitcoin mature into the LTH category. In the last month alone, 345,000 BTC have matured into this cohort, a factor Maartunn describes as "structural strength building under the surface."
Persistent Selling Pressure Limits Upward Momentum
While LTHs appear to be accumulating, the recovery faces headwinds from other segments. Short-Term Holders (STHs), those holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days, have been sending approximately 60,000 BTC to exchanges, often at a loss. This indicates profit-taking or capitulation among newer investors. Furthermore, large entities, defined as wallets holding over 100 BTC, have also shown increased inflows to exchanges, contributing to the selling pressure. This collective distribution from STHs and large entities is the primary reason why Bitcoin's rally has struggled to push higher, despite the positive trend in LTH supply accumulation. Maartunn concludes that for now, the recovery retains characteristics of a "bear market rally," emphasizing that a decisive breakout would be necessary to fundamentally shift the current market outlook. Bitcoin's price itself reflected this dynamic, surging past $78,000 last week before retreating to approximately $75,300, underscoring the ongoing battle between buying enthusiasm and selling imperatives.
