Bitcoin's Looming "Big Storm": Analyst Predicts Further Crash Below $45,000

While some crypto enthusiasts optimistically anticipate Bitcoin finding its bottom and gearing up for a bullish reversal, a prominent analyst known as Marmot offers a contrasting, more bearish outlook. According to his recent analysis, Bitcoin has yet to reach its true price floor, warning investors that a significant downturn, a "big storm," is on the horizon before any sustainable recovery can begin.

Echoes of the 2022 Bear Market

Marmot's analysis highlights striking similarities between Bitcoin's current price movements and the patterns observed during the 2022 bear market. He notes that Bitcoin has already fallen more than 40% from its all-time high of approximately $126,000 in October 2025. This downward trend has been interspersed with what he describes as "fake recoveries" or "bull traps," temporary price surges designed to lure in short-term investors before the market sharply reverses. He suggests the market is currently navigating a second bear phase, characterized by these deceptive upward movements and persistent volatility, ultimately aimed at liquidating vulnerable positions.

The Projected "Real" Bottom and Final Capitulation

The analyst further details that the market is now entering its crucial "final phase," where Bitcoin's true bottom is expected to materialize. Marmot forecasts that Bitcoin's price could descend below $43,700, signifying an additional drop of over 40% from its current hovering price around $74,000 and a substantial 65% decline from its peak. His charts indicate a recurring cycle of bear traps followed by bull traps before the ultimate bottom is reached, a pattern he believes is vividly repeating itself. Specifically, he suggests Bitcoin might first fall to $45,500, experience a brief rebound, and then undergo a "final crash" to definitively find its bottom, paving the way for a new, sustained bullish trajectory above $45,000.