The crypto market is buzzing with speculation about when Bitcoin's next major bull run will truly kick off. While recent price movements have shown some bullish momentum, one prominent crypto analyst, known as CrypFlow, suggests that the real surge won't begin until specific technical milestones are met. According to CrypFlow, a true bull market isn't signaled by bottoming out, but by clear confirmations on the charts.
The Nuance Beyond the Bottom
Bitcoin is currently trading around $71,750, having seen a 4.3% increase in the last 24 hours, even hitting an intra-day high of $72,379. However, despite this short-term bullish momentum, Bitcoin remains approximately 43% down from its October 2025 peak of $126,000 (likely referring to a previous cycle's peak or a projected future peak). CrypFlow distinguishes between a market bottom – where price simply stops falling – and the initiation of a bull run, which requires confirmed market shifts. The analyst emphasizes that without specific technical validations, any price recovery is merely a rally within a larger corrective or bearish structure. CrypFlow highlights two critical indicators: the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the -14 wave trend level. Historically, these levels have acted as crucial demarcation points separating bearish and bullish phases. For instance, in the 2021 cycle, a breakdown below these indicators preceded the 2022 bear market. Currently, Bitcoin's price remains below its 50-week SMA, and the wave trend indicator is still below the -14 threshold, echoing conditions typically seen in a bearish or consolidating environment.
Markers for a Confirmed Bull Run
For the next Bitcoin bull run to be definitively declared, CrypFlow outlines three essential conditions that must be met. First, Bitcoin's price must break convincingly above the descending trendline established from its cycle top. This signals an end to the prevailing downward pressure. Second, the wave trend indicator needs to reclaim and sustain a position above the -14 level, signifying a shift in underlying momentum. Finally, Bitcoin must decisively move back above its 50-week SMA. Until these three technical confirmations align, CrypFlow maintains that any upward price movements, no matter how strong in the short term, should be viewed as unconfirmed rallies. These indicators served as reliable signals during the transition out of the 2022 bear market, confirming a bullish flip only after all were reclaimed. The analyst's approach stresses patience and the importance of waiting for comprehensive technical evidence before declaring the dawn of a new bull market.
