Bitcoin Flashes Rare Buy Signal Not Seen Since Major Lows, Analysts Watch for Next Leg Up
Bitcoin is showing a critical "buy" signal, a phenomenon not observed since its significant swing lows at $49,000 and $74,000. According to on-chain analyst Frank of Vibe Capital Management, the cryptocurrency's short-term holder Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (STH-MVRV) Bollinger Bands have indicated an "oversold" print, a strong historical indicator of market bottoms. This latest signal appears as Bitcoin tests the $108,000 mark, suggesting a potential rebound from current levels.
Key Market Indicators Point to Opportunity
The STH-MVRV metric, which assesses when newer coins are trading at statistically depressed valuations relative to their cost basis, has once again pierced the oversold threshold. This technical alignment previously coincided with periods of local selling exhaustion, paving the way for price recoveries. Alongside this, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) for coins held less than 155 days remains below 1.0, indicating that recent buyers are still realizing losses rather than profits. This "pain" among short-term holders is seen by some as a necessary precursor to a market turnaround.
Derivatives Activity and Macro Influences
Adding to the bullish outlook, positioning in the derivatives market has recently "deleveraged," characterized by persistent long liquidations and a shrinking balance sheet for leveraged bulls. Analysts are now keenly observing for a "flip" in sentiment where these long positions might convert into aggressive shorts. Such a shift, especially if it occurs at an inopportune time for shorters, could provide substantial fuel for a "relief squeeze" and propel Bitcoin prices higher. In the broader macroeconomic landscape, gold's recent rally to new highs is also being watched closely, as Bitcoin often follows the yellow metal, potentially setting the stage for a "debasement trade" into 2026. The confluence of these on-chain and derivatives signals presents a compelling narrative for a potential upward movement. While a breach below the short-term holder cost basis of $108,800 would necessitate a re-evaluation of demand at the 200-day moving average (around $101,000), the current indicators suggest that a bull market might be consolidating before its next significant ascent. If spot demand can overcome the short-term cost basis and a wave of aggressive shorting provides the necessary liquidity, Bitcoin could be poised for its next leg higher.
