XRP's True Bottom Remains Elusive as On-Chain Data Signals Further Decline
Despite stabilizing after a challenging start to the year, the price of XRP may yet face additional downward pressure, according to recent on-chain analysis. While investors hold out hope for a rebound, deeper market metrics suggest that the popular altcoin has not yet reached its definitive local price floor.
The Unsettling "Days Spent At A Profit" Indicator
On-chain analyst João Wedson highlights a crucial metric: the "Number of Days Spent At A Profit." This indicator tracks how long current XRP holders have remained profitable relative to previous price highs. Historically, extreme levels of this metric have coincided with significant price bottoms, preceding market recoveries. However, current data reveals XRP trading considerably below these established "hallmark" zones. Wedson suggests this divergence implies more downside movement is probable in the near to mid-term. This extended period of price decline is seen as a necessary precursor for the formation of historical patterns that typically pave the way for a true market bottom.
Contrasting Wallet Activity: Shrimps vs. Whales
Further insights from blockchain analytics firm Santiment reveal notable expansion within the XRP Ledger, predominantly driven by smaller wallets. Investors categorized as "shrimps" (holding less than 100 XRP) have significantly increased, now accounting for approximately 5.66 million addresses, indicating widespread retail adoption. Similarly, mid-tier wallets (100-100,000 XRP) have also grown to around 2.01 million, suggesting an influx of more serious accumulators among everyday users. In stark contrast, large-holder wallets (over 100,000 XRP) have shown minimal growth, capped at roughly 32,054. This suggests that "whales" or institutional investors are primarily engaged in distribution or repositioning rather than active accumulation. With limited influence from large holders to propel prices upward and a persistent deviation from historical bottom patterns, the overall outlook points to a strong possibility that XRP's true local price bottom might still be at lower levels.
