BBVA Research has released its latest "Situación España" report, painting a detailed picture of the Spanish economy's projected growth through 2026 and 2027. Despite a complex international landscape marked by geopolitical tensions and elevated energy prices, the analysis underscores both the challenges Spain faces and the internal pillars supporting its resilient economic trajectory.
Navigating Global Headwinds and Energy Shocks
The report reiterates a 2.4% growth forecast for Spain in both 2026 and 2027, acknowledging the significant impact of global events. The escalating conflict in the Middle East, particularly the implications for energy prices, stands out as a primary concern. Disruptions in critical routes like the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for a substantial portion of global oil and gas, are projected to elevate crude and natural gas costs. BBVA Research estimates that a short-duration conflict could shave approximately 0.2 percentage points off Spain's GDP growth in 2026 and push inflation up by 0.3 points, settling around 2.9% for the year before receding to 2% in 2027. While Europe's energy dependency makes it vulnerable, the report projects overall global growth near 3% and Eurozone growth at 1.1% in 2026, gradually strengthening.
Spain's Domestic Strengths and Key Growth Drivers
Despite external pressures, the Spanish economy exhibits notable internal resilience. Consumption, particularly from non-residents, is proving robust, potentially benefiting from redirected tourism flows towards safer destinations. Non-tourist service exports also continue to be a dynamic engine, with strong projected growth. Furthermore, immigration is identified as a significant contributor to GDP per capita growth since 2023, with potential regularizations poised to further boost social security affiliation and tax revenues. The labor market is anticipated to remain strong, with over a million new jobs forecast between 2026 and 2027, underpinning domestic demand. The housing sector is also expected to gain weight, driven by an accumulated supply deficit, leading to continued price increases and increased investment.
Fiscal Outlook and Future Imperatives
On the fiscal front, BBVA Research foresees a more expansive policy than initially expected, influenced by accelerated public spending and the absence of new general state budgets. This trajectory suggests a deficit of 2.3% of GDP in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027. While acknowledging these fiscal challenges and the ongoing global risks, the report concludes that Spain's economy possesses a solid foundation for growth. Crucially, it emphasizes the imperative for structural reforms to stimulate investment, enhance productivity, and ensure sustained employment generation, particularly in vital sectors like housing and energy, to secure long-term prosperity.
