Bitcoin's Next Bull Run Hinges on Short-Term Holder Profitability, Says Glassnode
A recent analysis by Glassnode suggests that a sustained recovery for Bitcoin hinges on a crucial metric: the profitability of its short-term holders (STHs). For the cryptocurrency to regain momentum and potentially hit new all-time highs, more than half of the Bitcoin supply held by these newer investors must return to profit.
The Critical 50% Threshold for Short-Term Holders
The "Supply in Profit" metric tracks the percentage of Bitcoin's circulating supply that is currently held at a net unrealized gain. For short-term holders—defined as addresses that acquired their Bitcoin within the last 155 days—this metric is currently below the critical 50% mark. Historically, when the STH Supply in Profit dips below this level, it signals suppressed demand and increased selling pressure in the market. Glassnode emphasizes that a flip above this 50% profitability threshold has often served as a precondition for significant Bitcoin rallies, eventually leading to new price records.
Historical Precedent and Current Market Dynamics
Looking back, instances where short-term holders collectively returned to profitability above 50% have consistently preceded strong market upswings. For example, a similar shift in early 2025 led to a Bitcoin rally that set new all-time highs. Currently, Bitcoin is making a fresh attempt to breach the $72,000 level, showing a modest 3% surge over the past 24 hours. However, analysts are closely watching the STH profitability metric, noting that consistent upward movement requires this cohort to move decisively back into profit, signaling renewed confidence and demand in the market. The firm cautions that "demand-side risk appetite tends to remain suppressed until this flips back above 50%."
