Ethereum (ETH) may be nearing a significant market bottom, according to analysis from Fundstrat, which suggests a potential reversal point within a specific price range. This outlook is grounded in historical on-chain metrics and past market cycle behaviors.
Historical Patterns Point to a Bottom
Fundstrat's analysis hinges on the "realized price," a crucial on-chain metric representing the average cost basis for all Ethereum holders. Historically, major ETH drawdowns have found relief after breaching this support zone. Drawing parallels from previous market cycles, the analysis outlines two distinct scenarios for a potential bottom. If ETH follows the 2022 pattern, where it bottomed after a 39% drop below its realized price, the current cycle could see a bottom around $1,367. Conversely, if the more recent Q1 2025 rebound pattern—a 21% drop below on-chain support—repeats, then $1,770 could mark the low point.
Short-Term Hurdles and Future Prospects
While Ethereum recently dipped to $1,747, potentially aligning with the 2025 scenario for a bottom, the 2022 pathway suggests a further decline of approximately 30% to $1,360 is still conceivable from current levels. Despite these short-term headwinds, the analyst projects a substantial 80% rally for ETH over the next 12 months, provided it maintains support above $1,300. However, a critical element for a sustained recovery remains absent: robust U.S. investor buying pressure. While selling activity from U.S. investors has eased, it has not yet transitioned to net buying, as evidenced by a negative Coinbase Premium Index. Historically, strong U.S. demand has been a precursor to significant ETH price recoveries. Therefore, until this key demand driver turns positive, reclaiming the $2,000 level may prove challenging for Ethereum.
