Bitcoin's recent price consolidation within the $60K-$70K range has sparked intense debate among analysts regarding its market trajectory. While some view this as a potential bottom ready for recovery, a closer look at market metrics and expert opinions reveals a more complex and potentially extended bearish outlook, juxtaposed with surprising short-term bullish sentiment from specific market segments.
Bearish Warnings from Key Analysts
Renowned Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo has issued a stark warning to "perma bulls," asserting that the cryptocurrency is still strengthening its bear trend. According to Woo, the bear market began when volatility spiked, and its continued climb signifies an intensifying downtrend. He posits that a true weakening of the bear market, and thus a macro bottom, will only occur after volatility peaks in the mid-to-late phase, followed by two or three smaller volatility spikes. Woo further projects that the bear market still needs to navigate two more phases: a bearish move in global equities and a peak in capital outflows, suggesting the worst is "far from over" and could span several months. Echoing this cautious sentiment, analytics firm Glassnode highlights the importance of accumulation patterns. While past drawdowns (like post-LUNA crash and FTX implosion) saw aggressive buying, a convincing market bottom at the $60K level or lower would require a surge in the Accumulation Trend Score (represented by darker shades). The current data suggests that while some accumulation is present, it might not yet be strong enough to definitively call a bottom, leaving room for further potential dips and reinforcing the notion that the bear market could linger for months.
Options Traders Eye Short-Term Breakout
In a notable contrast to the long-term bearish projections, short-term options traders are increasingly leaning bullish. Nansen's Principal Research Analyst, Aurelie Barthere, noted a significant shift in sentiment over the past week, with call options dominating put buying, particularly among professional-grade block trades. The prevailing call strike at $75K indicates that these traders are actively positioning for a breakout above the current $60K-$70K range, eyeing an immediate upside target. However, Barthere tempers this short-term optimism by cautioning that a sustained long-term recovery remains contingent on favorable macroeconomic conditions, the CLARITY Act, and U.S. midterm election outcomes.
