Bitcoin Bear Market Nears End: Expert Predicts Rebound Within the Year As Bitcoin (BTC) hovers significantly below its all-time high, a prominent market expert, Altcoin Sherpa, offers a timely and optimistic forecast. He projects that the current bear market phase is unlikely to extend for another full year, suggesting a potential end to the downturn in less than 365 days, with a broader uptrend possibly resuming before the year concludes.
Decoding the Downturn: Peak to Bottom Cycles
Sherpa's analysis clarifies that his timeline specifically addresses the "peak to bottom" movement of Bitcoin's price, rather than the subsequent accumulation period. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a consistent cyclical pattern: powerful rallies, as seen in 2017 and 2021, are typically followed by steep, year-long declines, observed in 2018 and 2022. This suggests a predictable rhythm to its market corrections. The accumulation phase, which traditionally follows these downturns, is characterized by choppy, sideways price action with lower volatility and subdued trading volumes, generally lasting between two to four months.
Potential Capitulation and Accumulation Underway
A crucial element in concluding a downtrend is often a "final capitulation event"—a sharp, dramatic sell-off that effectively marks the market's bottom. Sherpa believes such a capitulation might have already occurred in 2026, pointing to Bitcoin's notable drop from $100,000 to $60,000 as a potential decisive flush-out. If this interpretation holds true, the market could already be in its early accumulation stages. However, he also acknowledges the risk of a further significant drop, perhaps from $75,000 to $50,000, which would reset the accumulation clock but solidify the definitive bottom. Unlike previous cycles, the current market dynamics are influenced by new factors, most notably the emergence of US spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). These instruments have altered capital flows, potentially changing how a bear market plays out. Furthermore, Bitcoin's prolonged consolidation phase between $50,000 and $70,000 for roughly eight months is viewed as a robust support zone from a technical analysis perspective, reinforcing the idea that a significant bottom may be forming, if not already established.
