JPMorgan's Bold Call: Bitcoin Deemed "Undervalued" Against Gold
In a significant pivot, global banking giant JPMorgan has issued a research note asserting that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently undervalued relative to gold, a surprising analysis driven by the cryptocurrency's rapidly declining volatility. This re-evaluation by one of Wall Street's most influential institutions suggests a growing mainstream acceptance and a shifting perception of Bitcoin's intrinsic value in the global financial landscape.
Bitcoin's Shifting Volatility and Fair Value
JPMorgan's cross-asset team reveals a dramatic reduction in Bitcoin's price swings. Six-month BTC volatility has plunged from nearly 60% at the start of 2025 to approximately 30%. This unprecedented compression means Bitcoin is now only about twice as volatile as gold, marking the narrowest historical gap between the two assets. Applying the bank's own volatility-adjusted valuation framework, this reduction in risk implies that Bitcoin's market value should be considerably higher. Specifically, to align with the estimated $5 trillion private investment market for gold, Bitcoin's price would need to appreciate by roughly 13%, reaching an estimated $126,000 per coin. This positions Bitcoin as undervalued by approximately $16,000 based on this metric.
Underlying Drivers and Future Projections
The analytical team at JPMorgan attributes this volatility collapse to a maturing market structure and an evolving holder base. Key factors cited include accelerated accumulation by corporate treasuries, which now hold over 6% of the circulating Bitcoin supply, and index-related dynamics that temper day-to-day price movements. Industry commentators, like Joe Consorti of Theya, view JPMorgan's analysis as a significant acknowledgment, suggesting that Bitcoin is on a clear path towards parity with gold. Extending this long-term view, some projections suggest that if Bitcoin and gold maintain their current five-year compound growth rates, BTC could achieve market cap parity with gold by the early 2030s. This scenario could see Bitcoin's market capitalization swell to $53 trillion, pushing its price to an astonishing $2.5 million per coin, especially if gold continues to lose market share. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $111,061, highlighting the potential upside perceived by this influential financial institution.
