XRP's Resilient Rebound: Is a Final Price Shakeout Still Looming?
Following a brutal sell-off last week, XRP has demonstrated a notable Wave 4 bounce, signaling a potential turning point for the cryptocurrency. While short-term momentum is visibly building, analysts caution that the broader downtrend remains unbroken, leaving investors to ponder if one last "shakeout" is on the horizon before a definitive recovery takes hold.
Wave 4's Unfolding Dynamics
XRP is currently navigating a Wave 4 relief phase, emerging from an aggressive sell-off that saw its Relative Strength Index (RSI) plunge to multi-year lows. According to analyst CasiTrades, this sharp decline likely represented a "capitulation" event, often a precursor to a market reversal. The subsequent rebound has shown resilience, a characteristic trait of a Wave 4 reaction after an asset becomes deeply oversold. XRP has already met its initial Wave 4 target at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, settling near $1.52. This level also converges with a broader 0.65 Fib retracement, establishing a significant confluence zone where temporary resistance is anticipated.
The Critical $1.65 Threshold
The path forward for XRP hinges significantly on its ability to conquer the $1.65 region. This level is crucial, as it marks the convergence of the 0.5 retracement and the macro 0.618 Fib, making it a key decision point. Should XRP fail to reclaim and sustain $1.65 as support, it could trigger a final impulsive move lower, potentially pushing prices towards $1.09, and in a more extreme scenario, to $0.90. However, the recent rally has already helped reset the RSI from its extremely oversold state, suggesting that any further dip could form a bullish divergence on momentum indicators, often signaling strong long-term buying opportunities. Conversely, a successful breach and subsequent establishment of $1.65 as solid support would dramatically shift the bullish outlook. In such a scenario, analysts suggest waiting for a confirmed re-test of this reclaimed level, providing a more structured and favorable entry point rather than prematurely chasing the price. CasiTrades advises against panic selling, emphasizing that XRP is positioned at the deeper end of a broader market correction, with major technical levels having already been tested. This implies that the anticipated final downward wave may either be shortened or altogether negated, potentially ushering in a robust recovery phase.
