XRP's Persistent Downtrend: On-Chain Data Reveals the Culprit Since 2025
On-chain data from Glassnode has shed light on the consistent downtrend in XRP's price since 2025. After crashing from its high above $3 last year, XRP has struggled to regain momentum, continuously losing value amidst broader market weakness and a significant shift in investor sentiment. This prolonged correction is primarily driven by weakening on-chain profitability and escalating losses experienced by its holders.
Why XRP Holders Are Selling at a Loss
Glassnode's analysis points to a critical shift in investor behavior: XRP's price has fallen below the aggregate holder cost basis. This crucial metric represents the average price at which current investors acquired their tokens. When the asset trades below this level, a substantial portion of holders are "underwater," meaning their investments are currently at a loss. This precarious position often triggers panic selling, as investors rush to mitigate further losses, thereby intensifying selling pressure and solidifying the downtrend. Further supporting this outlook is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), an indicator measured by a seven-day Exponential Moving Average. SOPR monitors whether coins being transacted on the blockchain are moved for profit or loss. XRP's SOPR notably declined from approximately 1.6 in July 2025 to around 0.96 recently. A value above 1 typically indicates profit-taking, while a figure below 1 signals sales occurring at a loss. This sustained dip below the neutral mark suggests that most current selling activity for XRP is driven by loss realization rather than profitable exits, leading to negative on-chain profitability for holders. Such an environment erodes investor confidence, disincentivizes holding, and deters new capital inflows, perpetuating price stagnation or decline.
A Familiar Bearish Pattern
Intriguingly, Glassnode observes a striking resemblance between XRP's current market structure and a previous period between September 2021 and May 2022. During that earlier phase, XRP's SOPR also plummeted below 1 and remained in that territory for an extended duration. This historical period was characterized by prolonged consolidation and suppressed volatility following sharp declines, eventually leading to market stabilization. This parallel suggests XRP might be navigating a similar structural phase where losses dictate trading dynamics, and a meaningful recovery is unlikely until selling pressure subsides and market sentiment shifts positively. As of this report, XRP's price has dipped even further, trading below $1.4, reflecting a more than 4.3% drop in the last 24 hours and over 46% year-to-date.
