Bitcoin's Bull Run Stymied? Why a CryptoQuant Founder Says BTC Isn't "Pumpable" Right Now New analysis from CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju suggests that Bitcoin's current market structure makes it inherently resistant to significant upward price "pumps." This assessment is based on a critical divergence between Bitcoin's Market Cap and its Realized Cap, indicating a landscape dominated by persistent selling pressure.
Understanding Market vs. Realized Capitalization
At the heart of Ju's argument are two distinct valuation metrics. Bitcoin's Market Cap reflects its total value based on the current spot price of its circulating supply. This is the commonly cited figure for its real-time valuation. The Realized Cap, however, offers a more conservative "on-chain" perspective. It calculates Bitcoin's total value by considering the price at which each coin was last transacted on the blockchain, effectively representing the cumulative capital inflow into the asset. Historically, significant changes in Realized Cap—representing fresh capital entering the market—have typically preceded and driven larger movements in the Market Cap.
The Troubling Divergence and Heavy Selling Pressure
Recent market dynamics reveal a concerning shift in this relationship. While mid-2025 showed Bitcoin's Market Cap growing faster than its Realized Cap, suggesting bullish momentum, the trend reversed sharply in late 2025 and early 2026. Data highlights that in 2024, a $10 billion increase in Realized Cap led to a substantial $26 billion jump in Market Cap. However, a staggering $308 billion in new capital inflows (Realized Cap increase) throughout 2025 astonishingly resulted in a $98 billion decrease in Bitcoin's Market Cap. This stark contrast signifies that current "selling pressure is too heavy for any multiplier effect" to push prices higher, as noted by the analyst. Adding to this pressure, a cohort of "New Whales"—investors acquiring over 1,000 BTC in the past 155 days—recently incurred significant losses, with a single day (February 5th) seeing a $1.46 billion loss-taking event. As of late, Bitcoin hovers around $68,500, having fallen over 12% in the last seven days.
