XRP Faces Critical Juncture as On-Chain Data Echoes 2021-2022 Patterns

XRP is currently exhibiting a familiar on-chain stress pattern, with its Spend Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) dipping below 1, reminiscent of the late 2021 to early 2022 period. This shift, highlighted by leading on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, suggests a phase of significant loss realization among holders, potentially paving the way for eventual market stabilization rather than an immediate rebound.

A Deep Dive into On-Chain Metrics

Glassnode's recent analysis, detailed in a February 9 post, indicates that XRP has fallen below its aggregate holder cost basis. This move has historically coincided with market capitulation, triggering what the firm describes as "panic selling" and a sharp deterioration in spend output profitability. Specifically, XRP's 7-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) SOPR has declined from 1.16 in July 2025 to 0.96 "now." A SOPR reading below 1 traditionally signifies that the market is spending coins at an aggregate loss, a regime where holders are actively realizing significant losses. This on-chain profitability turning negative has previously been identified by Glassnode during periods of prolonged consolidation.

Market Sentiment and Future Outlook

Despite the challenging on-chain metrics, interpretations vary among market participants. Some view the sub-1 SOPR not as a red flag signaling structural failure, but rather as a "classic capitulation signal" indicative of a healthy transfer of supply. This perspective suggests that XRP is moving from "weaker" hands, those selling at a loss, to "stronger" hands, typically long-term buyers. If Glassnode's historical comparison to the September 2021 – May 2022 phase holds true, XRP may be entering a prolonged consolidation period. The immediate future for XRP, currently trading at $1.4225, largely hinges on whether marginal sellers are exhausted and profitability metrics can eventually recover, allowing the SOPR to reclaim and sustain above the break-even line.