Dogecoin's Bear Market: A Deeper Dive into the Crypto Analyst's Outlook
The ongoing Dogecoin drawdown might be nearing its final "capitulation" phase rather than a definitive bottom, suggests crypto analyst VisionPulsed. In a recent video, he cautioned that lingering bullish sentiment among retail investors and content creators indicates the market hasn't yet inflicted enough pain for a sustainable recovery. This perspective challenges the common narrative that Dogecoin's bear market is almost over.
The Psychology of Market Cycles and Lingering Optimism
VisionPulsed emphasizes that cryptocurrency markets often repeat cyclical patterns. True market bottoms, he argues, typically occur after a prolonged period where retail optimism slowly fades, culminating in a "final washout" when even the most steadfast bulls lose their conviction. The analyst points to the continued presence of bullish content on platforms like YouTube as a key indicator that the market has not yet reached this critical point of emotional capitulation. He highlights that humans tend to repeat the same mistakes, perpetuating these cycles.
Technical Signals and Dogecoin's Road Ahead
Delving into technical analysis, VisionPulsed frequently references momentum tools, particularly the Stochastic RSI for Bitcoin, as a barometer for the broader crypto market. He warns against overconfidence in countertrend rallies that merely "fizzle out" when the Stochastic RSI hits overbought territory. Drawing parallels to past market events, he suggests that significant price lows often coincide with a "black swan" event, a narrative shock that traders mistakenly identify as the cause, rather than the consequence, of an already structurally weak market. Specifically for Dogecoin, historical data shows bottoms aligning with oversold RSI conditions – a state DOGE has yet to reach in its current downturn. VisionPulsed projects Dogecoin could potentially drop to as low as 5 cents before finding a firm bottom. While acknowledging the possibility of a "macro shock" that could trigger a second, lower bottom (similar to the COVID-era market pattern), his base case remains that the correction is "probably almost done," setting the stage for a larger rally post-spring, with a "real bull run" potentially emerging around July 2027. For now, he advises traders to wait for a full sentiment break and momentum reset before declaring the bear market truly over.
