Aster (ASTER) has been navigating a turbulent period, recently experiencing a sharp decline followed by a notable rebound. However, despite this impressive short-term recovery, the underlying technical structure and looming fundamental events suggest a continued bearish bias, presenting a critical juncture for traders monitoring the cryptocurrency.
Persistent Bearish Structure and Looming Token Unlock
In recent weeks, ASTER saw its price rally to $0.711 before plummeting to a low of $0.403, mirroring Bitcoin’s fall below $60,000. While the token remarkably bounced over 53% in just three days from this low, its 1-day chart structure firmly retains a bearish outlook. Technical indicators, including moving averages, consistently point to a downtrend, and the Accumulation/Distribution indicator signals ongoing selling pressure. Further exacerbating the bearish sentiment is a substantial token unlock scheduled for February 17, which will release 78.11 million ASTER tokens, valued at $44.49 million, into the market. This significant increase in circulating supply, combined with prevailing market sentiment, is highly likely to dilute value and intensify selling pressure.
A Strategic Opportunity: Selling the Bounce
For discerning traders, the current price bounce in ASTER is less a sign of reversal and more an opportunity for strategic short positions. The prevailing analysis strongly advises to "sell the bounce," targeting a dense cluster of liquidity and resistance located around the $0.73-$0.74 price range. This zone is identified as a prime entry point for short trades, especially as Bitcoin itself might experience heightened volatility, potentially squeezing towards $72,000-$74,000. Traders are encouraged to await a clear bearish reaction at this overhead resistance. Should the price confirm a rejection, immediate downside targets are identified at $0.53 and $0.46, with expectations that the previous low of $0.405 will eventually be retested.
