Aptos (APT) has been navigating a challenging market landscape, experiencing significant price depreciation over recent months. With a crucial token unlock event on the horizon, the cryptocurrency faces intensified scrutiny, as market participants weigh the potential for increased selling pressure against nascent signs of underlying strength and technical resilience.
Token Unlock Fuels Inflation Concerns
On February 10th, Aptos is poised for a substantial token unlock, injecting approximately $12.73 million worth of APT into circulation. This event, representing 1.48% of the current circulating supply, raises concerns about short-term inflationary pressure. Historically, token unlocks often lead to increased sell-offs as recipients, particularly community members and investors who account for over 50% of this upcoming release, liquidate newly issued tokens. Given APT's already weakened price trajectory, this additional supply could exacerbate downward momentum in a bearish altcoin environment.
A Battle of Indicators: Technical Support Meets On-Chain Accumulation
Despite the looming supply increase, a complex picture emerges from technical and on-chain analyses. APT is currently testing a critical support level around the $1.00 mark, with a failure potentially leading to a new all-time low. However, indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are flashing oversold signals, often indicative of seller exhaustion and a potential for a corrective bounce. Simultaneously, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggests improving momentum. Adding to this complexity, on-chain data presents a more optimistic outlook. The Total Value Locked (TVL) within the Aptos ecosystem has notably increased by over $14 million in recent days, hinting at investor confidence and a long-term commitment. While weekly exchange netflows suggest consistent outflows (accumulation), daily data indicates some persistent selling. This confluence of signals paints a nuanced landscape, where short-term supply pressure clashes with underlying ecosystem growth and potential buyer interest at discounted levels.
