Bitcoin's Next Big Drop: Expert Predicts $45,000 Bottom by Late 2026

Bitcoin has officially entered a new bear market, marked by a significant 50% decline from its all-time high, with prices recently dipping as low as $60,000. This downturn has intensified speculation regarding how much further the leading cryptocurrency could fall before establishing its next long-term bottom. Offering a comprehensive analysis, market expert NoLimit has presented a detailed framework outlining his predictions for both the timeframe and price target of Bitcoin's ultimate low in this cycle.

Historical Halving Cycles Point to a 2026 Bottom

NoLimit's analysis moves beyond mere price targets, emphasizing that time plays an equally crucial role in identifying major turning points for Bitcoin. By examining past Halving cycles, he identifies a consistent pattern in the duration from Bitcoin's all-time highs to its subsequent cycle lows. Following the 2012 Halving, Bitcoin reached its bottom after 406 days. Similarly, the 2016 Halving cycle saw a bottom after 363 days, and the 2020 cycle concluded its bottoming process after 376 days. Applying this historical consistency to the recent 2024 Halving, NoLimit projects that Bitcoin's next major capitulation phase is highly likely to occur between October and November 2026.

The NUPLL Indicator and the '$45,000-$50,000' Target

Further bolstering his forecast, NoLimit integrates the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPLL) indicator, an institutional-grade metric for market sentiment. Historically, Bitcoin's generational lows have consistently coincided with the NUPLL entering what is referred to as the "blue zone." NoLimit notes that Bitcoin has not yet entered this critical zone in the current cycle, suggesting that further price corrections are anticipated. Considering both the historical timeframes following Halving events and the signals from the NUPLL indicator, NoLimit ultimately projects that Bitcoin could trade between $45,000 and $50,000 by the end of 2026, marking his definitive target for the cycle's ultimate bottom.