Ripple's XRP has been on a rollercoaster journey, experiencing a spectacular rally that propelled it to an all-time high, only to face a significant and swift retracement. Now, a closer look at market indicators and on-chain metrics reveals the cryptocurrency stands at a critical juncture, navigating a complex web of capital shifts, bearish signals, and crucial technical support levels that could dictate its near-term future.
XRP's Retreat and Shifting Capital Flows
After an impressive ascent from $0.40 to an all-time high near $3.66 between November 2024 and July 2025, Ripple's XRP has since corrected sharply, trading around $1.44—a substantial 61% decline from its peak. This market pullback is underscored by rising capital outflows, as evidenced by the Realized Cap Impulse indicator signaling dominant exits from the network. This behavioral shift suggests market participants are prioritizing profit realization and capital preservation amidst weakening trend confidence. Interestingly, a divergence exists as spot exchange data indicates consistent weekly XRP outflows, implying that many retail holders are maintaining exposure, possibly anticipating a recovery despite the broader capital exit.
Critical On-Chain Signals and Technical Vulnerabilities
Further adding to the cautious outlook, key on-chain valuation metrics highlight XRP's precarious position. The MVRV Z-Score, a metric often used to assess over/undervaluation, hovers precariously near the zero line. This level is historically crucial, often marking significant regime transitions that could either signal a bear market continuation or represent the last significant on-chain support. A sustained breach below zero could intensify distribution. Similarly, the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) metric is also at its transition line, with a drop into negative territory potentially accelerating selling behavior as most holders move into unrealized losses. From a technical standpoint, XRP remains highly vulnerable. Despite current demand zones showing clustered bids, the weak upside follow-through increases the risk of a deeper decline. A failure to firmly defend current support could pave the way for a move towards the $1 region, which would represent roughly a 72% retracement from its all-time high. The Accumulation/Distribution indicator, trending lower, corroborates persistent distribution pressure. Overall, sellers maintain control, and XRP's response around these key support levels will be paramount in determining whether it finds stabilization or experiences further downside.
