ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood is challenging a foundational belief among Bitcoin investors: the existence of a predictable "four-year cycle" of sharp price increases followed by painful crashes. She asserts that this pattern may no longer hold true, signaling a significant shift in Bitcoin's market dynamics and offering a decidedly optimistic outlook for its future.
Challenging the Traditional Bitcoin Cycle
Wood argues that Bitcoin has already bottomed out, declaring the recent downturn to be the mildest yet and potentially over. While many retail investors remain nervous after Bitcoin's drop to around $77,777, Wood views the $80,000–$90,000 range as a robust support zone, not a danger signal. She points to the current 30% correction as remarkably benign when compared to historical cycles, which often saw declines of 70% to 80%. This deviation, she suggests, indicates a maturing market, likely influenced by the growing presence of institutional capital.
A Bullish Long-Term Vision
Despite short-term market fluctuations and mixed technical signals—like an oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) often preceding a rebound, alongside high Bitcoin dominance—Wood remains steadfast in her long-term bullish stance, particularly looking towards 2030. She believes Bitcoin is consistently outperforming and winning the competition against gold as a store of value, having risen approximately 360% since 2022 compared to gold’s 170% increase. From ARK Invest’s perspective, today’s volatility is merely a minor detail in a much grander shift. Wood anticipates that Bitcoin's inherent scarcity will drive its total value to an astounding $16 trillion by 2030, nearly eight times its current size.
