Aptos (APT) has been locked in a prolonged and significant bearish trend throughout 2025, consistently hitting new all-time lows. This persistent downturn not only reflects challenging market conditions for the token but also highlights its struggle to keep pace with competitors like Sui (SUI), raising questions about its long-term trajectory.
Aptos's Persistent Bear Market and Underperformance
The price action for Aptos has been overwhelmingly bearish since June 2025, when it breached the $4.32 mark, establishing a clear bearish swing structure. Technical analysis further reinforces this grim outlook, with the 23.6% southward extension level at $1.72 flipping from support to resistance, and the 20-period moving average acting as a dynamic barrier to any upward movement. Compounding the bearish sentiment, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has remained significantly below -0.05 for months, signaling heavy capital outflows and a strong likelihood of further price depreciation for APT. Adding to its woes, Aptos has consistently underperformed its peer, Sui (SUI), a fellow blockchain also powered by the Move programming language. Sui has demonstrated a clear lead in critical areas such as DeFi liquidity, monthly active developers (boasting twice Aptos's count), and Total Value Locked (TVL). This consistent disparity in ecosystem growth and adoption underscores a broader challenge for Aptos in a competitive blockchain landscape.
A Brief Relief Rally Opportunity for Traders
Despite the overwhelming bearish sentiment, there appears to be a short-term opportunity for traders. Liquidation maps indicate that cumulative short liquidation leverage outweighs nearby long leverage, suggesting the potential for a brief relief rally for APT. This bounce is projected to push the price toward the $1.50-$1.55 range. Specifically, Fibonacci retracement levels pinpoint $1.44 and $1.52 as key resistance points, aligning with high-leverage short liquidation zones. Traders are advised to view this potential bounce not as a sign of recovery but as an opportunity to "sell the bounce" before the likely resumption of the longer-term bearish trend.
