Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Analysts Warn of Potential Drop to $30,000
Bitcoin (BTC) recently attempted to regain upward momentum, bouncing 2.6% from recent lows and trying to establish the $82,000–$83,000 range as support. However, leading analysts are issuing stark warnings: the cryptocurrency is treading a precarious path, and a failure to hold crucial support levels could trigger a "bearish acceleration" that might see its value plummet significantly, potentially revisiting the $30,000 mark.
Historic Patterns Point to Deeper Corrections
On Thursday, Bitcoin experienced a notable nearly 9% crash, pulling back towards the $81,314 level. This came after a period of consolidation between $86,000 and $93,500 since early November. Market observer Ted Pillows highlighted historical precedent, noting that past instances in 2018 and 2022 where Bitcoin closed weekly below its 100-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) resulted in a 50% decline within four to six weeks. He also identified an eight-year ascending trendline that has historically capped previous bull market cycles in late 2017 and 2021. If history repeats this pattern, Bitcoin could face a substantial retracement of up to 76.88%, potentially bringing its price down to $30,000 by 2026.
Macro Triangle Breakdown Signals Caution
Adding to the concerns, analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that Bitcoin has broken down from its weekly price range and is currently retesting the $82,500 bottom of its Macro Triangle formation. This monthly timeframe pattern, observed since mid-2024, mirrors a similar formation in 2021 that preceded a significant bear market. A confirmed breakdown below this macro triangle bottom would, according to Rekt Capital, signal "Bearish Acceleration." For Bitcoin to sustain a bull market continuation, it would need to decisively break and hold above its macro descending resistance on longer timeframes. Until then, the analyst suggests current price action appears to be a "compressed" version of the 2021 performance, hinting at further downward pressure.
