Bitcoin's Bull Run Over? Expert Points to Macro Indicators for a Bearish Outlook

A prominent crypto expert, Tony Severino, challenges the widespread belief that Bitcoin is still in an expansionary phase, asserting that its current cycle has already peaked. His analysis, grounded in traditional economic indicators and historical market patterns, suggests a more conservative outlook than many bullish predictions.

Macroeconomic Signals Point to a Cycle End

Severino dismisses popular "fairy tale" bullish claims, emphasizing the significance of the U.S. ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) as a crucial macroeconomic gauge for cyclical behavior. He highlights that current PMI data, hovering around 47.9, displays a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, indicative of a weakening manufacturing environment. From his perspective, which measures cycles from trough to trough, this PMI structure suggests the Bitcoin cycle has already reached its zenith and is now in a downturn. A sustained drop below 46 would signal an intermediate downtrend, while a plunge below 41.6 would align with severe historical downturns like the 2007-2009 Great Financial Crisis.

Bitcoin Lags Traditional Safe Havens

Further supporting his cautious view, Severino criticizes valuation models that disassociate Bitcoin from economic realities or compare it directly to assets like gold. He argues that Bitcoin is currently underperforming traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and silver, which continue to attract consistent capital inflows. In contrast, Bitcoin exhibits signs of "fatigue" around the $80,000 mark. Historically, similar technical breakdowns below monthly moving averages have preceded significant market drawdowns, averaging around 50% in prior cycles, reinforcing his prediction for potential bearish targets.