The cryptocurrency market is intently focused on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, as recent U.S. labor market data has significantly increased the probability of September interest rate cuts. This evolving macro landscape is poised to influence Bitcoin's immediate and medium-term price trajectory.
Shifting Rate Cut Expectations
Odds for a September Fed rate cut have surged to 80% due to a surprisingly weak July U.S. jobs report, adding only 73,000 jobs—well below forecasts. Substantial downward revisions to May and June non-farm payrolls further underscore a softening labor market. Analysts view this as a positive macro development, drawing parallels to last September when similar data prompted a 50 basis point cut and triggered an explosive rally in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin's Mixed Signals and Outlook
Despite this renewed optimism, Bitcoin dipped 2%, mirroring broader sell-offs. Experts offer mixed forecasts. FundStrat CEO Tom Lee sees it as a "normal dip" for future gains. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes cautions, citing potential Q3 U.S. tariffs and suggesting Bitcoin could test $100,000. CryptoQuant predicts "cyclical cooling" and several months of consolidation due to declining U.S. investor demand and profit-taking.
The Path Forward
This mix of macro uncertainty, profit-taking, and diverse expert outlooks suggests a potential sideways market for Bitcoin near term. Upcoming U.S. labor market and inflation data in August will be crucial, directly influencing rate cut expectations and Bitcoin's next move.
