Bitcoin Faces Stiff Resistance Above $98,400 as Glassnode Flags Supply Overhang
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has released a new report highlighting a significant "supply overhang" that could cap Bitcoin's (BTC) price rallies above the $98,400 mark. This crucial resistance level is primarily attributed to the cost basis of recent investors, signaling potential sell-offs as the cryptocurrency attempts to climb higher.
Short-Term Holders Form a Critical Price Ceiling
According to Glassnode's latest weekly analysis, Bitcoin's recent upward momentum hit a formidable obstacle around the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price. This metric, which tracks the average acquisition price for investors holding BTC for less than 155 days, currently stands at approximately $98,400. The stalling of the rally at this point suggests that recent buyers, who may have been underwater, are now utilizing the price recovery to exit their positions at or near their break-even point. This pattern echoes market behavior observed in Q1 2022, where repeated failures to surpass short-term holders' cost bases led to extended periods of consolidation.
Unpacking Supply Dynamics: The Road Ahead for BTC
A more granular look at the Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) Realized Price Distribution (URPD) reveals a substantial cluster of STH supply between the current Bitcoin price and the $98,000 threshold. This indicates a significant volume of tokens that were likely redistributed from earlier, top buyers to newer market entrants during the recent rally. While some short-term holders are capitalizing on this rally, not all are selling. Notably, above the $100,000 level, Long-Term Holder (LTH) supply begins to assert itself, suggesting that some seasoned investors remain committed to holding their assets. For Bitcoin to achieve a sustained breakout beyond the $98,400 STH cost basis and the psychological $100,000 barrier, a robust and persistent acceleration in demand momentum will be essential. Following its rejection from the STH Realized Price, Bitcoin has retraced, currently trading around $89,100.
