Ethereum is increasingly recognized as a foundational layer for the burgeoning tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), with BlackRock's 2026 Thematic Outlook positioning it as a pivotal "toll road" for this transformative shift. This thesis places Ethereum at the heart of future financial infrastructure, facilitating the on-chain movement of both assets and tokenized cash. However, the path to monetizing this infrastructure role is complex, involving dynamic market share, the rise of Layer 2 solutions, and sophisticated measurement challenges.
Ethereum's Evolving Role in Tokenization
BlackRock's assessment highlights Ethereum's current dominance, noting that over 65% of tokenized assets reside on its network. This frames Ethereum as a critical base layer for RWA, where issuance, settlement, and fee payment could occur. Yet, this market share is not static; recent data from sources like RWA.xyz indicate a slightly lower, though still leading, share for Ethereum, suggesting a potential for drift as tokenization expands to other blockchains. A key challenge to Ethereum's direct fee capture under the "toll road" model arises from the proliferation of Layer 2 (L2) rollups. While these L2s like Arbitrum One and Base leverage Ethereum for security, they offload daily transaction execution and fee payments to their own networks, potentially diluting the direct demand for ETH even as Ethereum remains the ultimate settlement layer.
Nuances in Measuring Economic Impact and Future Trajectories
The true economic throughput of tokenization, and thus the value of Ethereum's "toll road," depends heavily on refined measurement methodologies. BlackRock and Visa underscore the need to strip out "inorganic activity" like bots from stablecoin transaction volumes to accurately gauge genuine economic use. Without this, headline figures can be misleading regarding potential fee generation. Furthermore, institutional product design is already embracing multi-chain distribution, exemplified by BlackRock’s BUIDL fund being available across seven blockchains. This strategy complicates a direct "tokenization equals ETH demand" argument, allowing non-Ethereum chains to serve as vital distribution and utility layers. While some leaders in the space have mused about a "single common ledger" for tokenization, official bodies like the World Economic Forum stop short of validating this, acknowledging broader benefits like fractionalization without prescribing a singular blockchain. For Ethereum, the ongoing tension will be maintaining its neutrality and decentralization as it integrates with large, regulated issuers, ensuring that its base layer remains credibly resistant to unilateral changes and provides robust settlement finality.
